Blog

Oct 29, 2024

AFL 2024: Coach pressure gauge for 2025 season, most likely to be sacked, out of contract coaches, Ken Hinkley, Matthew Nicks, Simon Goodwin, Luke Beveridge, latest news

Similar to death and taxes, another certainty in life is that there will always be at least one, if not more AFL coaches under pressure heading into the next season. The coaching market has remained

Similar to death and taxes, another certainty in life is that there will always be at least one, if not more AFL coaches under pressure heading into the next season.

The coaching market has remained largely stable this year, with Adam Simpson’s departure from West Coast the only change in personnel at the top.

To the surprise of few, Port Adelaide’s Ken Hinkley sits atop the pressure gauge despite a preliminary final appearance this year — and is closely followed by his cross-town counterpart.

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It’s worth noting that not every gap between rankings is equal; there’s the width of a sheet of paper separating some, and daylight between others.

Below, foxfooty.com.au ranks every AFL coach 1 through 18 on the pressure surrounding their tenure — the lower the number, the greater the pressure.

1. Ken Hinkley (Port Adelaide)

It’s almost indisputable that the Power’s coach of 12 years is the most under pressure heading into 2025; despite taking his side to yet another preliminary final. So much so in fact, that he was arguably one semi-final loss away from him and the club parting ways this September. Hinkley himself understands the pressure that has come with being successful but not yet good enough to win it all. Port Adelaide continues to be in and around the final four each season, but now not even that looks good enough for Hinkley to stick around at Alberton beyond next year. Put simply, it looks to be grand final or bust for the 58-year-old, who comes out of contract in just under 12 months’ time.

2. Matthew Nicks (Adelaide)

The Crows’ coach of half a decade is well and truly in the gun heading into season 2025, having never made finals during his tenure. Granted, he should have been coaching in September of 2023 if not for a goal-umpiring error — but unfortunately, it counts for nothing now. The acquisitions of Alex Neal-Bullen, Isaac Cumming and James Peatling in the off-season, as well as Pick 4 in this year’s draft, should bolster the club’s list significantly, leaving them almost no excuse now for not qualifying for the finals. Nicks is contracted until the end of 2026.

3. Simon Goodwin (Melbourne)

Despite winning the premiership in 2021 and earning a double chance in the two years following, the pressure on Goodwin has risen considerably over the past 12 months. At the forefront of that pressure is Melbourne’s culture — as an external review of the club continues to divide within — as well as the continued noise surrounding superstar Clayton Oliver. While it is difficult to comment on Goodwin’s involvement in either of these issues, as the face of the club, he has worn the brunt of it. Now in serious danger of falling outside the premiership window, Goodwin needs to prove he is still the right man to lead the Demons towards another flag, otherwise he could fall victim to external pressure.

4. Luke Beveridge (Western Bulldogs)

The 2016 premiership coach has found himself under the pump for a few years now, having lost two elimination finals in three years as well as missing September altogether last year. That being said, Beveridge and his side fought back admirably from a 3-5 record to make this year’s finals — ultimately losing to a raring Hawthorn. After a decade in the hot seat, Beveridge is under a similar amount of pressure to Goodwin, minus the off-field noise. The losses of Bailey Smith, Jack Macrae and Caleb Daniel look set to test their depth greatly, as well as the saturation of teams genuinely in competition for a top-eight position.

5.Justin Longmuir (Fremantle)

While the Dockers have now missed out on finals for consecutive seasons, the pressure on Longmuir perhaps isn’t the same as it was last year. This year was as tough a year as any to make finals, and while Fremantle should have still played in September, it’s clear that its list is improving at a strong pace. With a spine as good as, if not better than anyone in the competition, finals has to be the pass mark this year — with an expectation the Dockers push for the top four. A shared optimism among most that the purple army will rise sharply in form come 2025 is what takes a bit of pressure off Longmuir for now, but don’t be fooled — another sub-par year will see the coach of five years well and truly in the firing line, and out of contract.

6. Michael Voss (Carlton)

The Carlton coach of three years has had varying levels of success in his time at the helm, but pressure is beginning to build despite a seemingly promising trajectory. Voss’ Blues have one of the most well-rounded lists in the league — possibly with the exception of their key-defensive depth — meaning expectations are high for season 2025. They had a horrid run with injury at a poor time this year, but barring the health of their list, there aren’t any excuses for not making a strong run for the silverware next season. Regardless of where Carlton finishes on the ladder, Voss will be there in 2026 for the final year of his current contract — but the pressure to deliver now is absolutely there.

7. Brad Scott (Essendon)

Pressure is quietly building on the former North Melbourne coach. Under Scott, the Bombers have managed just 11 wins in back-to-back seasons — both times after disappointing collapses at the business end. This year, Essendon fell short in nine of its final 12 games — sitting fourth in Round 18 before finishing 11th. In 2023, the Dons sat fifth in Round 17 before also finishing 11th that year. The Bombers have a young but improving list and should again be in the September mix next season — and while Scott isn’t under immediate threat, if they fall short again, the heat will really start rising. In 2024, Essendon ranked below AFL average for points from turnover, while its stoppage scoring profile sat 11th in the competition. It will add exciting Next Generation Academy prospect Isaac Kako to a new-look forward line that lost Jake Stringer.

8. Alastair Clarkson (North Melbourne)

As things stand, there is no pressure on the four-time premiership coach at Arden Street, who is contracted for another three seasons at least. That being said, the expectation now is firmly there for the Kangaroos that they start showing notable improvement in 2025; with experienced personnel acquired and another pre-season under the belts of their young guns. For that reason, sparks and flashes of promise won’t cut it in the same way that they have in years gone by. If next season plays out the same way it did in 2024, Clarkson will shoot up this list — but for now, he sits in the middle of the pack.

9. Ross Lyon (St Kilda)

Two seasons into his second coming at the Saints, Lyon’s side battled mediocrity for most of the season before a strong finish to the campaign after falling out of finals contention. An elimination final appearance in 2023 hasn’t been forgotten, but this side needs to make it to September again for it to be taken seriously. Jack Macrae was the club’s marquee recruit in the off-season, but having lost Josh Battle to Hawthorn, it is hard to predict how much improvement is set to come in 2025. In saying that, key long-term pieces such as Max King, Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera and Mattaes Phillipou will only continue to improve with another pre-season.

10. John Longmire (Sydney)

A ranking as the 10th-most under pressure coach in the competition might appear harsh of the surface, granted. Longmire coached his side excellently all season, and his players delivered right up until the last Saturday in September. Nobody doubts Longmire’s credentials as a coach, but now given the seriously high expectations that they will once again lead the premiership race, the pressure will naturally fall on him and his side. The contract of the 2012 premiership coach expires at the end of next season, adding an extra layer of intrigue to what happens beyond 2025 with presumed successor Dean Cox waiting in the wings. All that said, however, Longmire likely remains at Sydney’s helm for as long as he sees fit.

11. Damien Hardwick (Gold Coast Suns)

With Gold Coast, it’s important to distinguish that pressure on the club doesn’t necessarily always equate to pressure on the coach. Fans for well over a decade have been frustrated with the Suns’ continually stunted progression, and more recently their absence in September — but that isn’t Hardwick’s fault. That being said, after a year spent settling in at the Suns and instilling a game-style identity, crunch time now begins for the three-time premiership mentor. He is certain to be at the club in 2026, but questions will begin to arise if the club isn’t playing finals for a 15th-straight year. The acquisitions of Daniel Rioli and John Noble in the trade period will only boost their side and leaves them even less excuse for not making their September debut in 2025. Hardwick is contracted until the end of 2028 in Carrara.

12. Adam Kingsley (GWS)

After two seasons at the helm in western Sydney, Kingsley is firmly seen as the Giants’ man long-term. Given they were 44 points ahead of eventual premiers Brisbane in a semi-final, his side is well and truly capable of getting back to the pointy end of September. The losses of Harry Perryman, Isaac Cumming and James Peatling will test their depth should injuries arise. But the inclusion of Jake Stringer is one that is absolutely indicative of a side in the premiership window. Nonetheless, unless the Giants finish in the bottom six, Kingsley looks set to be clear of any considerable pressure in 12 months’ time — and, importantly, is contracted until the end of 2028.

13. Chris Scott (Geelong)

If we could put Scott lower on this list, we would. The two-time premiership coach continues to deliver in the win-loss column and was just 10 points away from yet another grand final appearance. Despite heading into his 15th season as coach, there are no signs suggesting Scott is heading towards the end of his tenure at the Cattery. Do things change if Geelong regresses in 2025? Given the Cats have bounced back after missing finals before, probably not!

14. Craig McRae (Collingwood)

He was the league’s safest coach heading into 2024, and a season later, not a whole lot has changed for ‘Fly’. It feels like something of a surprise that he’s only been on the block for three seasons, having taken his Magpies to a premiership and preliminary final in his first two campaigns in charge. Injuries hit the black and white army hard this year, meaning results were at times more out of his control. With recruits Dan Houston and Harry Perryman joining the fray, expectations will still be high, but it would take a repeat of 2024 for pressure to begin mounting on McRae.

15. Adem Yze (Richmond)

While the first-year Richmond mentor had a tough go of it commencing his tenure, he is only in his head-coaching infancy, thus patience is required. Yze coached the Tigers to a 2-21 record this year — resulting in a last-placed finish — ranking second-last for points-from-turnover differential and third-last for points-from-stoppage differential. Yze was 17th in last year’s pressure gauge, and since then, the club has suffered a mass player personnel exodus. Again, with an impending significant injection of youth at the draft, patience is key. But in saying that, supporters will want to see development from a game-plan perspective next year.

16. Sam Mitchell (Hawthorn)

Mitchell capped his third full season in charge of Hawthorn by leading an inspired squad to an unanticipated 14-9 home-and-away record and a 1-1 finals campaign after a late-year charge. Following a combined 15 wins across his first two campaigns, Mitchell’s burgeoning brigade turned heads in 2024 — increasing internal and external expectations for next year, particularly after bolstering their defensive stocks in the form of Josh Battle and Tom Barrass. Hawthorn had the fourth-best points-from-turnover profile this season, and it will be expected to deliver similar results in the win-loss column in 2025. Albeit because the Hawks overperformed to such a degree in 2024, the pressure on Mitchell as coach heading into next season is minimal.

17. Andrew McQualter (West Coast)

Arriving at the Eagles in late September, McQualter will be given 2025 to find his feet as a new senior coach. The 38-year-old’s playing list for next season still isn’t one many expect to see make any waves, so the expectations placed on him won’t be overwhelming in year one; as frustrating as the last few years have been for West Coast supporters. And while for very different reasons, most would think he and Chris Fagan are the two safest coaches on the circuit at the moment.

18. Chris Fagan (Brisbane)

There is no senior coach under less pressure heading into next year than Fagan, who led the Brisbane Lions to their first premiership in 20 years. While the 63-year-old had entered this season under considerable pressure given the Lions were coming off a grand final loss in 2023, storming to flag glory from fifth on the ladder this year has alleviated any and all heat on the oldest coach in the competition. Fagan was awarded with a one-year contract extension to tie him to Brisbane until the end of the 2026 season. There is no reason why Fagan and the Lions can’t strive for more premiership success in the coming years, having led the competition in points-from-turnover differential in 2024.